The Salt Lake Chamber’s Utah Outlook 2020 second quarter poll, with a timely look at the Republican Gubernatorial Primary, is now available. The Utah Outlook is a statewide poll measuring Utahns’ sentiments on issues relevant to us and our communities. As with CEOutlook, which measures opinions from business executives, the polling information will be released every quarter and made available to all Chamber members.

The 2020 second quarter poll was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates.

View previous Utah Outlook polls here.

A note from our pollster:

As of June 9, 2020, and among active voters, there are 750,494 registered Republicans and 220,356 Democrats in Utah. There are also 71,906 voters affiliated with “other” political parties, and 461,403 active registered voters who are unaffiliated with any political party. For affiliated voters to be eligible to vote in the closed Republican primary, they must register as Republicans. Unaffiliated voters must request a Republican ballot by June 19th.

This is the first year in Utah where there will only be polling places on election day for those with special needs. The three-week voting period began on June 9th and will conclude on June 30th. Other than for special needs, all ballots must either be mailed in, or deposited at various drop boxes.

It is impossible to predict what voter turn-out may be, especially given the unique challenges and circumstances that we currently face as a state and as a nation. Our poll surveyed only those who said that they were either “likely” or “very likely” to vote in the 2020 primary elections. We further asked Democrat and other non-Republican affiliated voters if they will “register as a Republican in order to participate in the closed Republican primary.” Seventeen percent responded in the affirmative. We asked registered unaffiliated voters if they will request a Republican ballot from their County Clerk “knowing that it will register you as a Republican.” Nineteen percent responded that they would. We then tabulated the data based upon the self-declared likely Republican primary voters, and in proper proportion to the current voter registration files.

Our survey was quite large—a 1,200 sample. The margin of error for a sample of this size is very low. As various cross-tabulations are calculated and the sample size declines, the margins of error, of course, increase. I am confident, however, that this data is an accurate snapshot of voter sentiment measured during the period of June 1-10.