We want to share with you the most recent numbers we have received from our polling firm Dan Jones & Associates. The survey results below include very likely Republican voters AND Unaffiliated and Democrat voters who say they will vote in the 2020 Republican Primary.
A Note from Our Pollster:
Among those who have not yet voted but who say that they will, the number of undecideds is relatively high at 24%. These voters may be the least likely to turn out to vote, but Huntsman has more “lean voters” at Huntsman 13%, Cox 6%.
A very large number of those Unaffiliated voters polled (81%) say that they will request a Republican ballot. Similarly, 76% of Democrats polled say that they will likely vote in the closed Republican primary.
Turnout will be the deciding factor as it is in most every close election. There are many extraordinary dynamics that will likely affect voter turnout including COVID-19, civil unrest, and that this is the first election where voters can vote only by mail. The ability of individual candidates to successfully implement GOTV campaigns is an important factor as well.
We must recognize that any poll is only a snapshot of a particular moment in time. There is one thing, however upon which all pollsters agree—that voter turnout will be the most important factor that will determine the outcome of every close election in Utah this year.
Methodology Statement:
Dan Jones & Associates conducted a phone survey on the upcoming elections from June 17-24, 2020, with an average of 178 completes per night. The quantitative survey called registered voters in Utah who are likely to vote in the upcoming primary elections. Calls were administered to both landline and cellphone numbers. With a final sample size of 1,247, the margin of error was +/- 2.77% at a confidence interval of 95%, with the exception for specific questions noted. To ensure adequate representation of Utah voters, quotas were managed by age and county.
